Executive Summary: EM ex-Asia credit markets saw mixed performance this week, with selective weakness across CEEME and Africa offset by idiosyncratic moves in LATAM corporates. Broader sentiment was muted amid heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East; macro view remains cautious with beta reduced into March ahead of key US NFP and CPI releases.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit: CEEME

• COLOM: Clear underperformer; curve +20bp/+31bp wider and prices down -50ct/-1.88pt w/w, driven by local political risk (Invamer poll).
• REPHUN: Lagged due to threats to block EU sanctions; $ curve finished +8bp/+10bp and € curve +4bp/+8bp.
• ROMANI: Priced large €2.25bn 7Y and $2bn 10Y; new paper traded heavy with €33s and $36s down -7ct and -25ct below reoffer.
• UKRAIN: Closed weaker as mood deteriorated following Hungary’s move to block the €90bn EU loan package.

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit: Africa

• EGYPT: Recovered midweek after IMF confirmed the release of $2.3bn; curve finished unch/-1pt on the week.
• SENEGL: Spiked +1.25pt on IMF speculation before fading to +13ct/+63ct w/w after clarification on data misreporting.
• GABON: Recovered from Fitch warning after president instructed securing an IMF deal by May; ended unch/-25ct w/w.

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit: Latin America

• RAIZBZ: Volatile on Shell/Cosan capitalization headlines; curve finished -25ct/-2pt though 27s outperformed (+1.5pt).
• PARGUY: Tapped $300mm of 55s; tender offer expiration prompted positive secondary moves of +15ct/+65ct.

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