Executive Summary: Asia credit outperformed its EM peers this week, trading firm despite a fragile US–Iran ceasefire backdrop, with IG spreads tightening 1–5bps. Ex-Asia EM credit had a volatile and net weaker week, as renewed US–Iran / Strait of Hormuz tensions kept oil prices elevated and risk premia higher. Approximately $2.4bn flowed into EM hard-currency funds. The EM Agg widened ~2.7bps WoW; CDX.EM43 fell ~26cts; HY underperformed IG across the board.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Regional Credit Developments

🇨🇳 Asia Credit: Investment Grade & High Yield

• Asia IG: Spreads tightened 1–5bps WoW. Benchmark China property names saw solid demand.
• GLPSP: Plunged 6–7pts with no clear catalyst ahead of FY25 results announcement.
• Ex-China HY: Closed +0.25–0.5pts on the week.
• Mineral Resources: Priced two-tranche USD 6yr / 8yr deal, upsized from $500m to $650m per tranche; both tranches traded ~1pt lower on the break.
• Genting: Priced USD 750m perpNC5.5 and USD 500m perpNC10y; both bonds traded down ~1pt on softer end-demand.
• Dalian Wanda: Priced $150m 3yr bond at 12.5%; traded 0.25pt lower on the bid side.
• Vanke: Secured bondholder approval for debt restructuring (40% upfront repayment, 60% one-year extension) — third onshore bond extension since December 2025. Bonds largely unchanged after falling 2–3pts the prior week.

🌏 Asia Credit: Frontier & Sovereign

• Philippines: Fitch revised outlook to Negative while affirming BBB rating, citing concerns over medium-term growth headwinds from Middle East energy shocks and slowing public sector investment.
• Thailand: Moody’s revised outlook to Stable from Negative; quasi-sovereign linked issues saw buying.
• Pakistan: Returned to USD bond market with $500m 3-year sovereign bond, upsized to $750m on demand. Central bank confirmed receipt of $1bn from Saudi Arabia’s finance ministry — final tranche of the $3bn deposit package.
• Frontier sovereigns: Underperformed on profit-taking flows as oil prices rose.
• Vedanta: On track for demerger into five separately publicly listed companies, effective May 1.
• Coronado Global Resources: Considering sale of its Curragh coking coal mine in Queensland, Australia.
• Japfa Pte (Ba3/B+): Conducting roadshow next week for USD 5NC2 new issue.

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit: CEEMEA

• Romania (ROMANI): +3/+5bps wider. PSD withdrew ministers on April 22–23, leaving the government a minority after PM Bolojan refused to resign over austerity disputes; PSD plans to file a no-confidence vote in the coming days.
• Ukraine (UKRAIN): -1.25/+0.25pts; B35/B36s underperformed. EU €90bn loan approved following Hungary’s Orban electoral loss; EU accession talks advancing.
• Lebanon (LEBAN): -2.25pts. Ceasefire extended three weeks but residual fragility weighed on bonds.
• Metinvest (METINV): +0.25/+0.50pts. Full redemption of April 23 bonds from internal cashflows; 2027/2029 bonds in focus.

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit: MENA & Africa

• MENA IG (KSA / ADGB): Traded defensively, finished modestly wider.
• Senegal: +2.3pts on positioning; AfDB disbursements remain frozen.
• Mozambique: +1.6pts.
• Angola: Heavy turnover with capped gains despite higher oil.
• Egypt: Underperformed (−1.75 to −3pts across the curve) on Middle East tensions.

🌎 EM Ex-Asia Credit: Latin America

• Colombia (COLOM 10Y): -0.75pts. Tender offer for 9 bonds ($12bn+ principal, 2035–2061); pre-priced by the market.
• Ecopetrol (ECOPET 10Y): -1.125pts. Moody’s downgrade to Ba2/Negative from Ba1/Stable, reflecting heightened government interference risk and reduced reliability of the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC) mechanism. Separately, announced acquisition of a 26% stake in Brazil’s Brava Energia.
• Braskem (BRASKM): +0.50/+3.25pts; long-end lagged. Novonor agreed to sell 50.1% voting stake (34.3% total capital) to an IG4 Capital-backed fund. Petrobras waived its tag-along rights and signed a new shareholders’ agreement with the incoming fund.
• Raizen (RAIZBZ): +0.25/+0.50pts. Creditor negotiations ongoing; binding agreement still pending.
• Aeromexico (AEROMX 2031): -2.75pts. 1Q26 results: revenue +13% YoY; EBITDAR +5%; fuel cost headwinds.
• Aegea (AEGEBZ): -3.5/-1.5pts. Second S&P downgrade in three weeks (B+ to B with Negative outlook), reflecting weaker 2025 leverage metrics in delayed financial statements. Follows S&P’s April 1 cut (BB- to B+) and negative review actions from Moody’s and Fitch in early April.
• Ecuador (ECUA): -0.80/-0.20pts. Staff-level agreement at 5th IMF review; $400m disbursement unlocked.

Geopolitical & Macro Watch

• US–Iran: Ceasefire optimism from the prior week reversed; oil remains bid; Strait of Hormuz risk persists.
• China–US: Beijing is sending two giant pandas to the United States ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in mid-May.
• Israel–Lebanon: President Trump confirmed a three-week extension to the ceasefire (originally expiring April 26). LEBAN bonds closed -2.25pts.

Week Ahead

• Japfa Pte (Ba3/B+): Roadshow for USD 5NC2.
• Pakistan: Sovereign follow-through after upsized $750m deal.
• Vanke: Demerger mechanics post-bondholder approval.
• Vedanta: Demerger into five listed entities effective May 1.
• Raizen: Creditor negotiation update expected.
• GLPSP: FY25 results.

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