Weelkly ending 5th December 2025

Executive Summary: Market pricing currently implies a >90% probability of a 25bp Fed cut at the upcoming meeting. In Asia, India reported +8.2% GDP growth, while China’s property sector data continues to show contraction. In EM ex-Asia, volatility increased following headlines regarding Ukraine peace negotiations.

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*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

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Regional Credit Developments

🇮🇳 India

• Macro Data: India GDP growth recorded at +8.2%. The RBI cut benchmark rates by 25bps.
• Reliance Industries (RILIN): S&P upgraded the rating to A- (previously BBB+). Spreads tightened 7-14bps following the announcement.
• Adani Ports (ADSEZ): November cargo volumes increased +14% YoY. ADSEZ 31s bond spreads are quoting at ~G+191bps.
• Ratings: Fitch downgraded Greenko (GRNKEN) to BB- citing project delays. S&P and Moody’s revised Vedanta’s outlook to Positive.

🇨🇳 China & North Asia

• Meituan: Q3 revenue increased +2% YoY. Net cash position declined by RMB 30bn QoQ following expansion initiatives in the Middle East and Brazil.
• Property Sector: Fitch released a 2026 outlook citing continued office oversupply. China Vanke was downgraded to ‘CCC-‘ with ratings placed on Watch Negative.
• South Korea: Moody’s downgraded Hanwha TotalEnergies to Ba1 (High Yield), citing petrochemical cycle weakness.

🇦🇺 Australia & ASEAN

• Regulatory (Australia): APRA finalized the AT1 capital phase-out. Banks will replace 1.5% AT1 buffers with 1.25% Tier 2 capital and 0.25% CET1.
• Indonesia: The new Sovereign Fund (Danantara) has been cited in media discussing potential overseas investments.
• Frontier Markets: Severe flooding reported in Pakistan and Sri Lanka; Pakistan finance minister projects a 0.5% impact on GDP growth.

🌍 EM Ex-Asia (CEEMEA & LatAm)

• Ukraine (UKRAIN): The sovereign launched a consent solicitation to exchange GDP Warrants into new 2030 and 2034 notes. Warrants rallied +5.5pts following the launch.
• Argentina (ARGENT): Minister Caputo announced plans to issue a new local law USD bond (6.5% coupon, maturing Nov 2029). President Milei’s approval rating polled at 42.6% in November.
• Senegal (SENEGL): Bonds rebounded +0.25pts on Friday after an IMF spokesperson confirmed ongoing work on a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA).
• Chile (Corp): Telefonica Chile bonds dropped ~2pts following reports of binding offers valuing the company at $1.2-1.3bn.

DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

AI Generation Notice: Portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Users should independently verify critical data points. Past performance is not indicative of future results.