Executive Summary: The first full trading week of 2026 was defined by extreme geopolitical shifts and a surge in primary market issuance. In EM ex-Asia, the detention of Nicolas Maduro by US authorities triggered a massive rally in Venezuelan paper, while high-beta credits showed significant intraday volatility. In Asia, credit markets maintained a strong initial tone, though profit-taking emerged mid-week in high-yield names, particularly in the China property and Indian NBFC sectors.
Market Visualizer
Regional Credit Developments
🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit
- VENZ/PDVSA: Rallied +9pt/+10pt following the detention of Nicolas Maduro; closed near weekly highs despite late profit-taking.
- UKRAIN: Rebounded +50ct/+1.5pt on improved sentiment regarding peace negotiation milestones and security guarantees.
- SENEGL: Outperformed (+1.88pt/+4.25pt) following positive IMF progress and strong local auction results.
- MEXICO: Successfully absorbed $9BN in new supply across tranches, with the 30Y trading +70ct above reoffer.
- LEBAN: Gained +4.75pt (trading context 28-28.75) fueled by heavy Real Money demand.
🇨🇳 Asia Credit: China Property & HY
- Vanke (VNKRLE): USD bonds plunged 3-4pts on heightening restructuring fears and low recovery estimates.
- New World Development (NWDEVL): Front-end bonds spiked +1-2pts on reports of using internal cash flow for upcoming maturities.
- Nickel Industries: Rallied +1.5pts following a sharp spike in global nickel prices.
🌏 Asia Credit: Frontier & Sovereign
- Sri Lanka (SRILAN): Ripped +2pts higher on strong RM/HF demand and scarcity of long-dated paper.
- Indian NBFCs: MGFLIN and IHFLIN weakened (-0.75pt) following RBI objections to the Bain Capital deal structure.
- Eximbank: New 30Y $ issuance tightened 8bps on the break due to scarcity value for Indian long-end bonds.
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