Weekly Updates

Executive Summary: EM credit spreads tightened broadly over the week. EM Aggregate spreads narrowed approximately 14bp w/w and CDX.EM gained close to 1pt. CEEMEA and distressed/high-beta names led performance; LatAm also finished the week firmer. In Asia, credit prices recovered sharply following a last-minute US–Iran ceasefire announcement, with Brent falling approximately 10% on the week. Asia IG returned +0.5% and Asia HY returned +0.9%. Asian equity markets rose between 3% and 11% across the region. Two-way flows were observed across HY and hybrid names.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit

• LEBAN: The curve closed +4pt/+4.5pt w/w on turnover exceeding $550mm. Both hedge fund and real money accounts were active following Israel–Lebanon negotiation headlines. High PDI bonds closed approximately 1pt above the rest of the curve on the week.
• POLAND: Priced a $6bn triple-tranche deal (5y/10y/30y at T+65/T+105/T+130). New issues closed +1pt/+2.4pt above re-offer. The secondary curve closed -4bp/-14bp w/w.
• REPHUN: Activity increased ahead of Sunday’s elections. Polls from Median and 21 Kutatokozpont showed Tisza leading by 23% and 19% respectively among decided voters. The dollar curve closed -16bp/-28bp w/w; EUR bonds closed -12bp/-23bp w/w.
• UKRAIN: Best-performing EM ex-Asia credit this week — A +6.5pts, B +5.75pts, C +4.5pts w/w. Contributing developments included broader risk-on conditions following US–Iran ceasefire talks, reduced polling support for Orbán in Hungary ahead of Sunday’s election, and Ukraine’s parliament passing bills required for IMF and EU financing.
• DRCONG: Priced its inaugural dual-tranche dollar deal: $600mm 5y WAL at 8.75% and $650mm 10y WAL at 9.5%. Bonds traded as high as +1pt/+1.5pt above re-offer before retracing to close at approximately +63cts/+1pt above re-offer.
• COLOM: Bonds lagged Thursday morning following S&P’s overnight downgrade from BB to BB–. The curve recovered later in the week alongside broader market improvement. Polls indicated both Espriella and Valencia would outperform Cepeda in a potential run-off. The curve closed -18bp/-33bp w/w.
• VENZ / PDVSA: Headlines on Tuesday reported that the interim government and its political opposition were coordinating their legal defense of national assets. VENZ closed +85cts/+2pt w/w and PDVSA +1.75pts/+2.25pts w/w, near recent highs.
• Africa / SSA: Kenya and other net oil importers outperformed as Brent declined approximately 10% on the week. Moody’s completed its periodic review of Zambia with no rating change. Ghana’s outlook was revised to positive. SSA HY and distressed spreads tightened on the week.

🇨🇳 Asia Credit: China Property & HY

• Meituan: Fitch revised the company’s credit outlook to negative from stable.
• eHi: 63.51% of its due-2026 bonds were tendered for exchange, below the 85% minimum acceptance threshold. The company waived the minimum condition and the exchange proceeded.
• Medcij: Tapped its 2030 bond for $200mm at $103.072.

🌏 Asia Credit: Frontier & Sovereign

• Pakistan / Sri Lanka: Both closed up 3–5pts on the week. Adsez 41 and RWLVCAs each gained approximately 3pts on the week.
• Sri Lanka: The IMF and Sri Lanka authorities reached a staff-level agreement following the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) review. Access to approximately $700mm is contingent on completion of the Executive Board review.
• Sammaan Capital: Bonds closed approximately +1pt on the week. The company launched a tender offer for its 2030s at par, up to $45mm. Crisil upgraded its local rating to AA+.
• Philippines: S&P revised the BBB+ outlook to stable from positive.

DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

AI Generation Notice: Portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Users should independently verify critical data points. Past performance is not indicative of future results.