Weekly Updates

Executive Summary: Ex-Asia EM credit traded with elevated dispersion over the week, lagging a firmer macro backdrop. Risk-on conditions on 14 April gave way to mixed and choppy price action through 15–16 April. Flows remained skewed toward selling into strength across most regions, with selective positioning in CEEMEA, LatAm, and corporate names driven by country-specific and headline developments rather than broad spread compression.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Market Performance & Flows

📅 14 April — Risk-On Open

• HY Bonds: Rose approximately +25c to +1.5pts on the day.
• IG Spreads: Tightened by -1bp to -15bp.
• CDX.EM: Improved approximately +28c.
• Flow Drivers: Strong real money and CTA demand; supported by easing geopolitical tensions and improved macro sentiment.

📅 15 April — Softening Momentum

• HY Bonds: Ranged approximately -50c to +15c on the day.
• IG Spreads: Ranged -4bp to +4bp.
• CDX.EM: Near flat (~-5c from lows).
• Flow Drivers: Better selling dominated; dispersion increased on headline-driven moves.

📅 16 April — Underperformance vs. Macro

• HY Bonds: Moved between -75c and +1pt.
• IG Spreads: Ranged -4bp to +3bp.
• CDX.EM: Widened modestly (~-15c).
• Flow Drivers: Selling into strength remained the dominant pattern; ex-Asia EM credit underperformed broader macro conditions.

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 CEEMEA & MENA

• Lebanon: Bonds gained +20–30c on 16 April following reports of a 10-day ceasefire with Israel; hedge fund demand was observed despite ongoing real money selling. Earlier in the week, IMF headlines indicated potential fast-track financing of $800m–$1bn, generating two-way flows.
• Zambia: Remained in focus during IMF discussions in Washington; investor attention centred on debt restructuring mechanics, including DCC trigger risks and growth outlook ahead of elections.
• Hungary (REPHUN): Spreads tightened approximately -12bp to -20bp following an opposition election victory.
• Poland: Traded largely sideways over the week.

🌍 Sub-Saharan Africa

• SSA Sovereigns: Benchmark bonds were firmer earlier in the week (+0.5 to +1pt); sentiment remained cautious into latter sessions. The broader backdrop remained sensitive to IMF conditionality and fiscal risks.

🌎 Latin America

• Venezuela / PDVSA: Bonds rallied +1pt to +1.25pt amid firmer oil prices and IMF-related developments.
• Peru: Underperformed over multiple sessions following political developments, including the emergence of a left-populist challenger in the presidential runoff; price action remained contained but weaker relative to regional peers.

Corporate Credit

🇪🇺 EMEA Corporates

• Air Baltic: Bonds rebounded approximately +4pts after Latvia’s parliament approved a €30m loan to the airline, resolving a political dispute that had threatened coalition stability.
• DTEK Oil & Gas (Ukraine): Bonds rose +2–3pts following an exchange offer announcement.
• Metinvest (Ukraine): Reported FY2025 results including $130m in 2H free cash flow; stated intention to repay upcoming maturities.

🌍 Africa Corporates

• OCP Morocco: Secondary curve underperformed (-50c to -75c) following hybrid issuance guidance at approximately 6.75–7.375% yields; selling was observed from both real money and hedge fund accounts, though new issues held broadly stable.

🌎 Latin America Corporates

• Braskem: Bonds were broadly stable to slightly higher (flat to +0.25pt) following reports that coupon payments on 2034 notes were made. Earlier in the week, the complex had rallied +3.25 to +4.25pts before encountering selling at higher levels.
• Raizen: Bonds closed approximately +0.25pt higher after reports that bondholders proposed a restructuring plan including a capital injection of approximately BRL 8bn.

Market Tone

Across the week, improved macro conditions — including easing geopolitical tensions and supportive commodity dynamics — were not fully reflected in ex-Asia EM credit performance. Markets exhibited high dispersion and headline sensitivity, with flows characterised by selling into strength and selective positioning rather than broad spread tightening.

DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

AI Generation Notice: Portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Users should independently verify critical data points. Past performance is not indicative of future results.