Weekly Updates

Executive Summary: EM sovereign hard currency spreads tightened by around 5bp on the week, and CDX EM indices closed tighter. Primary supply totalled approximately USD 22 billion across the week, with most new issues trading above reoffer. Hard currency funds recorded outflows while local currency funds recorded inflows. Outperformers on the week included Egypt, Kenya, Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela; underperformers included Senegal, Angola, Colombia and Romania, with Romania still finishing somewhat tighter on spread despite relative underperformance.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Sovereign Movers

🇺🇦 Ukraine

• Q1 2026 GDP: –0.5% YoY, versus Bloomberg consensus of +0.5% YoY.
• UKRAIN bonds: Line A +1.2 pts, line B +0.75 pts, line C +0.875 pts on the week. [source]

🇷🇴 Romania

• Politics: Parliament passed a motion of no-confidence on Tuesday, ousting the prime minister.
• ROMANI bonds: Underperformed regional peers but finished approximately 5–10bp tighter on spread, with cash prices +0.375 to +0.75 pts on the week.

🇵🇪 Peru

• Election count: With 97.9% of votes counted on the ONPE platform, Roberto Sánchez held a lead of close to 26,000 votes over Rafael López Aliaga for second place and a runoff spot against Keiko Fujimori.
• 10y PERU bonds: Broadly unchanged on the week.

🇻🇪 Venezuela

• OFAC action: US Treasury issued a general license authorizing certain legal, financial advisory and consulting services to the Venezuelan government and PDVSA in connection with potential debt restructuring preparations. The license does not authorize any actual restructuring or settlement of debt, nor direct negotiations with creditors.
• VENZ / PDVSA complex: Approximately +1.5 pts on the week. [source]

🇦🇷 Argentina

• Ratings: Fitch upgraded long-term foreign-currency and local-currency IDRs to B− from CCC+, stable outlook (May 5, 2026), citing improved fiscal and external metrics and progress on reforms.
• ARGENT complex: +0.5 to +1.375 pts across the curve on the week. [source]

Regional Highlights

🌍 MENA & GCC

• Egypt: CDS tighter by approximately 60bp on the week, with reported flows from regional investors including Kuwait.
• Turkey: Approximately 15–20bp tighter on the week.
• GCC: Sovereign and quasi-sovereign spreads tighter; Saudi PIF placed a USD 7 billion multi-tranche deal, absorbed without visible secondary dislocation.

🌍 CEEMEA ex-MENA

• Hungary & Poland: Stable to slightly tighter on the week, with no major macro or political surprises.
• Pakistan: External financing and reserve dynamics remained part of market commentary; IMF support continues to be referenced.

🌍 Africa

• Kenya: Outperformed; oil-importer status referenced alongside the lower-than-peak oil price backdrop.
• Senegal: Bonds weaker amid renewed political instability.
• Angola: Bonds weaker, with market focus on oil-price sensitivity and fiscal metrics.
• Nigeria: External curve broadly stable; ongoing reform efforts, including the absence of fuel subsidies, remain part of market commentary.

🌎 Latin America

• Colombia: Bonds wider on the week amid heightened political headlines.
• Mexico & Brazil: Steady, incremental spread tightening over the week.

Corporate & Sector Developments

• DTEK Oil & Gas (DTEKOG): Announced sufficient bondholder consents to amend the terms of its 2026 bonds and proceed with an exchange. Bonds broadly unchanged on the week.
• Acelen (MCBRAC): Held Q4 2025 results call on Monday with Q1 2026 guidance characterised as strong. Bonds +0.5 pts on the week.
• Movida (MOVIBZ): Q1 2026 EBITDA BRL 1.57 bn, +17% YoY, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of BRL 1.55 bn. Bonds +0.75 pts on the week.
• Latam Airlines (LTMCI) & Azul (AZUBBZ): Both released Q1 2026 results, noting higher oil prices as a Q2 factor. LTMCI +0.625 pts; AZUBBZ +2.625 pts on the week.
• Aeromexico (AEROMX): April traffic — consolidated ASM flat YoY (domestic −1%, international +1%); RPM flat YoY; load factor 86.1%, +0.2 pts YoY. Bonds +2.25 pts on the week.

DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

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