Weekly Updates

Executive Summary: Global equity markets sold off sharply Friday on stronger US jobs data, raising Fed hike concerns, while EM aggregate spreads tightened modestly by 2bp with $15.3bn in hard-currency issuance and $0.9bn in fund inflows. Indonesia’s risk assets experienced heavy selling with JCI down 8.7% and IDR above 18,000, while China HY credit closed firmer with most benchmark names modestly higher. CEEMEA dominated by Iran-related headlines as talks halted mid-week following Israeli airstrikes, though Lebanon ceasefire announced and later disputed.

Market Visualizer

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit

• Indonesia: JCI fell 8.7% on the week with USD/IDR moving above 18,000 (all-time low for rupiah). Indonesia IG sovereign and quasi-sovereign USD credit widened 7-8bp, while Indonesia HY USD bonds fell 0.5-1.0pt. Sovereign wealth fund Danantara conducted roadshow for debut USD bonds.
• Colombia: Sovereign USD bonds tightened 30-50bp and ECOPET compressed 50-66bp following first-round presidential election where Abelardo De la Espriella received 43.7% versus Cepeda’s 40.9%. Subsequent poll showed Espriella ahead by nearly 8 percentage points ahead of 21 June runoff.
• Bolivia: 2031 USD bonds fell approximately 1.2pt on week after government declared humanitarian emergency amid opposition blockades estimated at US$2bn economic losses. Multiple cabinet ministers resigned amid demands for President Paz’s departure.
• Zambia: 2053 Eurobonds rallied approximately 2.75pt after government launched partial buyback financed by AfDB and raised tender price to 82.3-84.4pt. Ad hoc bondholder group stated intention to participate.
• Iran: Tehran halted nuclear talks with Washington mid-week following Israeli airstrikes in Beirut. US intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles and drones targeting Kuwait and Bahrain on 3 June. Late in week Iran signaled negotiations could resume under US pressure for weekend deadline.
• Lebanon: Hezbollah and Amal Movement moderated stance on ceasefire with Israel. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced Thursday, followed by renewed fire within hours after Hezbollah’s leader criticized deal.
• Romania: President Dan nominated advisor Eugen Tomac as prime minister. Romanian EUR bonds tightened 10-15bp on the day.
• Hungary: Steady real-money and hedge-fund demand in bonds over week following headlines that government expects up to EUR10bn in EU recovery funding by year-end.
• Ukraine: Bonds volatile, selling off mid-week after Rubio signaled poor prospects for Russia-Ukraine deal. Bonds recovered Friday after President Zelensky published open letter to President Putin proposing direct peace talks and full ceasefire during negotiations.
• Senegal: President Faye dismissed Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and retained Finance Minister Cheikh Diba in cabinet reshuffle. Authorities announced Friday payment arranged for following week’s coupon on FC-denominated bonds. Senegal USD bonds ended week +0.5 to +1.0pt.
• Ethiopia: IMF and authorities reached staff-level agreement on Extended Credit Facility review, making approximately US$468m available upon approval. Ethiopia sovereign bonds unchanged on week.
• Braskem: Reported considering maturity extensions, coupon reductions, and coupon grace periods for FC-denominated bonds. Bonds traded flat to +2pts on week.
• Raizen: Obtained sufficient creditor support for out-of-court restructuring plan. Bonds fell approximately 2.5pts over week.
• Grupo Televisa: Issued MXN-denominated convertible bonds equivalent to US$400m following shareholder approval in April, with stated use for potential M&A in sector. Televisa bonds roughly flat to +1.5pts on week.
• Acelen: Reported 1Q26 EBITDA of US$240m with 2Q EBITDA guidance over US$400m. Management indicated potential buybacks of USD notes toward year-end if cash levels more than sufficient. Bonds up approximately 1.25pts WoW.
• Aeromexico: Published May traffic data with 85.8% load factor. Airline bonds ended week broadly unchanged.
• Volcan: Fitch upgraded from B (Positive) to B+ (Stable) citing strong free cash flow generation. Bonds gained approximately 0.25pt on week.

🇨🇳 Asia Credit: China Property & HY

• China HY: Closed week on firmer tone with most benchmark names modestly higher despite global equity volatility. EM hard-currency spreads tightened modestly over week with EM Agg approximately 2bp tighter and CDXEM44 about 5ct firmer, supported by real-money inflows and local sponsorship with hedge-fund profit-taking and new-issue supply capping rallies.
• GLP: Notable outperformer with curve up around 2-3pts on week following renewed headlines regarding potential GLP China IPO in 4Q.
• VNKRLE: Outperformed with curve up roughly 1.5pts over week.
• Macau Gaming: Underperformed on week. MGM China down approximately 1pt and other Macau names around 0.5pt lower following Barry Diller’s US$12.4bn LBO offer for US-based MGM Resorts. China’s crackdown on illegal cross-border capital flows weighed on broader financial-sector sentiment.

🌏 Asia Credit: Frontier & Sovereign

• Japan Credit: Started week firm but ended mixed as selling interest increased toward latter part of week.
• SoftBank Group: Priced JPY260bn onshore subordinated bonds at JGB +316bp, broadly in line with previous JPY418bn subordinated deal in April. Senior USD bonds finished roughly unchanged to +0.5pt while USD hybrids gained around 1.5pts over week prior to US tech-led sell-off Friday.
• NWD: Bonds unchanged to modestly higher following announcement of advanced talks with Aravest on sale of 50% stake in three Hong Kong hotels for US$1.8bn and ongoing discussions with Hong Kong Airport Authority on cash settlement to terminate obligations related to 11 Skies mall project.

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This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

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