Executive Summary: EM ex-Asia credit ended the week on a firmer note amid macro support from firmer US data and buy-back demand, rebounding from mid-week softness driven by rates rallies and risk-off flows. HY names traded ‑13ct/‑50ct mid-week but recovered; IG spreads widened +2bp/+5bp early before stabilizing. Ukraine and SSA front-runners outperformed on geopolitical headlines and bank trips, while Latam corporates—notably RAIZBZ—faced heavy pressure on parent-company risk. Geopolitics drove Ukraine swings; SSA short-end rallied on IMF updates; Latam was buoyed by improving US ties (Argentina/Colombia); and corporates remained volatile on structural credit events.
Market Visualizer
Sovereign Highlights
🇺🇦 Ukraine
- Ukraine (A/B/C): Volatile week with +0.125/+0.375 on Friday amid FT-reported “ceasefire enforcement procedure” (Ukraine/Europe/US agreement), offset by Russia tensions.
- Weekly Performance: As +25ct/+38ct, Bs ‑13ct/+25ct, Cs ‑63ct. Mid-week dips on prisoner swap headlines and macro weakness.
🌍 Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereigns
- Nigeria/Egypt: Firmed flat/+0.25pts; broadly stable.
- Kenya: Underperformed ‑0.50/‑0.125pts.
- Zambia: Rebounded (A +0.125pts, B +1.125pts) after Morgan Stanley sell note.
- Senegal: Led gains with +0.375/+1.125pts (short-end strong), +2.38pt/+5.25pt w/w on bank trips.
- Others: Angola flat; Gabon +0.50pts early; Lebanon +0.625pts/‑0.25pts on IMF visits.
🇧🇷 Latin America
- Argentina: Non-eventful (‑0.10/+0.15pts) despite US tariff-scrapping deal.
- Ecuador: Flat mid-week after ‑0.75/‑0.50pts earlier.
- Colombia: Flat short-end/+0.10/+0.35pts long-end on Trump/Petro meeting and Cepeda primary ineligibility.
- Venezuela/PDVSA: ‑0.35/‑0.15pts.
- Costa Rica: +0.10/+0.40pts post-Fernandez election.
🇹🇷 Other Sovereign
- Turkey: €2bn 8Y printed at 5.15%; $ curve unch/‑1bp tighter.
Corporate Highlights
📈 EM Corporates
- RAIZBZ: Sharp selloff ‑25pt/‑30pt w/w (27s ‑35pt) on Cosan/Shell headlines—redemptions of 30s/31s, no coverage for $4bn shortfall, and new legal advisor hire. Curve ‑7.125/‑5.875pts mid-week, short-end weakest.
- CSNABZ: Sympathy pressure ‑6.25/‑1.25pts w/w; Fitch BB‑/RWN. Plans $1.5bn secured loan for bond maturities.
- FECCN: +0.25pts on M&A/debt exchange.
- WOMCHI/WOMMOB: Unchanged on asset sale rumors.
Key Themes
Geopolitics drove Ukraine swings; SSA short-end rallied on bank trips and IMF updates; Latam was buoyed by improving US ties (Argentina/Colombia); corporates remained volatile on parent company risks.
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