Weekly Updates

Executive Summary: Ex-Asia EM credit traded with elevated dispersion over the week, lagging a firmer macro backdrop. Risk-on conditions on 14 April gave way to mixed and choppy price action through 15–16 April. Flows remained skewed toward selling into strength across most regions, with selective positioning in CEEMEA, LatAm, and corporate names driven by country-specific and headline developments rather than broad spread compression.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Market Performance & Flows

📅 14 April — Risk-On Open

• HY Bonds: Rose approximately +25c to +1.5pts on the day.
• IG Spreads: Tightened by -1bp to -15bp.
• CDX.EM: Improved approximately +28c.
• Flow Drivers: Strong real money and CTA demand; supported by easing geopolitical tensions and improved macro sentiment.

📅 15 April — Softening Momentum

• HY Bonds: Ranged approximately -50c to +15c on the day.
• IG Spreads: Ranged -4bp to +4bp.
• CDX.EM: Near flat (~-5c from lows).
• Flow Drivers: Better selling dominated; dispersion increased on headline-driven moves.

📅 16 April — Underperformance vs. Macro

• HY Bonds: Moved between -75c and +1pt.
• IG Spreads: Ranged -4bp to +3bp.
• CDX.EM: Widened modestly (~-15c).
• Flow Drivers: Selling into strength remained the dominant pattern; ex-Asia EM credit underperformed broader macro conditions.

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 CEEMEA & MENA

• Lebanon: Bonds gained +20–30c on 16 April following reports of a 10-day ceasefire with Israel; hedge fund demand was observed despite ongoing real money selling. Earlier in the week, IMF headlines indicated potential fast-track financing of $800m–$1bn, generating two-way flows.
• Zambia: Remained in focus during IMF discussions in Washington; investor attention centred on debt restructuring mechanics, including DCC trigger risks and growth outlook ahead of elections.
• Hungary (REPHUN): Spreads tightened approximately -12bp to -20bp following an opposition election victory.
• Poland: Traded largely sideways over the week.

🌍 Sub-Saharan Africa

• SSA Sovereigns: Benchmark bonds were firmer earlier in the week (+0.5 to +1pt); sentiment remained cautious into latter sessions. The broader backdrop remained sensitive to IMF conditionality and fiscal risks.

🌎 Latin America

• Venezuela / PDVSA: Bonds rallied +1pt to +1.25pt amid firmer oil prices and IMF-related developments.
• Peru: Underperformed over multiple sessions following political developments, including the emergence of a left-populist challenger in the presidential runoff; price action remained contained but weaker relative to regional peers.

Corporate Credit

🇪🇺 EMEA Corporates

• Air Baltic: Bonds rebounded approximately +4pts after Latvia’s parliament approved a €30m loan to the airline, resolving a political dispute that had threatened coalition stability.
• DTEK Oil & Gas (Ukraine): Bonds rose +2–3pts following an exchange offer announcement.
• Metinvest (Ukraine): Reported FY2025 results including $130m in 2H free cash flow; stated intention to repay upcoming maturities.

🌍 Africa Corporates

• OCP Morocco: Secondary curve underperformed (-50c to -75c) following hybrid issuance guidance at approximately 6.75–7.375% yields; selling was observed from both real money and hedge fund accounts, though new issues held broadly stable.

🌎 Latin America Corporates

• Braskem: Bonds were broadly stable to slightly higher (flat to +0.25pt) following reports that coupon payments on 2034 notes were made. Earlier in the week, the complex had rallied +3.25 to +4.25pts before encountering selling at higher levels.
• Raizen: Bonds closed approximately +0.25pt higher after reports that bondholders proposed a restructuring plan including a capital injection of approximately BRL 8bn.

Market Tone

Across the week, improved macro conditions — including easing geopolitical tensions and supportive commodity dynamics — were not fully reflected in ex-Asia EM credit performance. Markets exhibited high dispersion and headline sensitivity, with flows characterised by selling into strength and selective positioning rather than broad spread tightening.

DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

AI Generation Notice: Portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Users should independently verify critical data points. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Executive Summary: EM credit spreads tightened broadly over the week. EM Aggregate spreads narrowed approximately 14bp w/w and CDX.EM gained close to 1pt. CEEMEA and distressed/high-beta names led performance; LatAm also finished the week firmer. In Asia, credit prices recovered sharply following a last-minute US–Iran ceasefire announcement, with Brent falling approximately 10% on the week. Asia IG returned +0.5% and Asia HY returned +0.9%. Asian equity markets rose between 3% and 11% across the region. Two-way flows were observed across HY and hybrid names.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit

• LEBAN: The curve closed +4pt/+4.5pt w/w on turnover exceeding $550mm. Both hedge fund and real money accounts were active following Israel–Lebanon negotiation headlines. High PDI bonds closed approximately 1pt above the rest of the curve on the week.
• POLAND: Priced a $6bn triple-tranche deal (5y/10y/30y at T+65/T+105/T+130). New issues closed +1pt/+2.4pt above re-offer. The secondary curve closed -4bp/-14bp w/w.
• REPHUN: Activity increased ahead of Sunday’s elections. Polls from Median and 21 Kutatokozpont showed Tisza leading by 23% and 19% respectively among decided voters. The dollar curve closed -16bp/-28bp w/w; EUR bonds closed -12bp/-23bp w/w.
• UKRAIN: Best-performing EM ex-Asia credit this week — A +6.5pts, B +5.75pts, C +4.5pts w/w. Contributing developments included broader risk-on conditions following US–Iran ceasefire talks, reduced polling support for Orbán in Hungary ahead of Sunday’s election, and Ukraine’s parliament passing bills required for IMF and EU financing.
• DRCONG: Priced its inaugural dual-tranche dollar deal: $600mm 5y WAL at 8.75% and $650mm 10y WAL at 9.5%. Bonds traded as high as +1pt/+1.5pt above re-offer before retracing to close at approximately +63cts/+1pt above re-offer.
• COLOM: Bonds lagged Thursday morning following S&P’s overnight downgrade from BB to BB–. The curve recovered later in the week alongside broader market improvement. Polls indicated both Espriella and Valencia would outperform Cepeda in a potential run-off. The curve closed -18bp/-33bp w/w.
• VENZ / PDVSA: Headlines on Tuesday reported that the interim government and its political opposition were coordinating their legal defense of national assets. VENZ closed +85cts/+2pt w/w and PDVSA +1.75pts/+2.25pts w/w, near recent highs.
• Africa / SSA: Kenya and other net oil importers outperformed as Brent declined approximately 10% on the week. Moody’s completed its periodic review of Zambia with no rating change. Ghana’s outlook was revised to positive. SSA HY and distressed spreads tightened on the week.

🇨🇳 Asia Credit: China Property & HY

• Meituan: Fitch revised the company’s credit outlook to negative from stable.
• eHi: 63.51% of its due-2026 bonds were tendered for exchange, below the 85% minimum acceptance threshold. The company waived the minimum condition and the exchange proceeded.
• Medcij: Tapped its 2030 bond for $200mm at $103.072.

🌏 Asia Credit: Frontier & Sovereign

• Pakistan / Sri Lanka: Both closed up 3–5pts on the week. Adsez 41 and RWLVCAs each gained approximately 3pts on the week.
• Sri Lanka: The IMF and Sri Lanka authorities reached a staff-level agreement following the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) review. Access to approximately $700mm is contingent on completion of the Executive Board review.
• Sammaan Capital: Bonds closed approximately +1pt on the week. The company launched a tender offer for its 2030s at par, up to $45mm. Crisil upgraded its local rating to AA+.
• Philippines: S&P revised the BBB+ outlook to stable from positive.

DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

AI Generation Notice: Portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Users should independently verify critical data points. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Executive Summary: EM credit markets endured a volatile week as the Middle East conflict remained unresolved, dampening risk appetite across asset classes. Ex-Asia EM saw a sharp mid-week rally on US-Iran de-escalation hopes before fading as ceasefire credibility eroded. CDX.EM closed modestly firmer on the week, though ETF and real-money outflows from hard-currency funds persisted. In Asia, IG credit slipped 0.2% and HY fell 0.6%, with equity markets also under pressure (HSI -1.3%, KOSPI -5.9%). Vanke dominated headlines as it approached onshore bondholders for a payment delay and signalled potential broader restructuring. Selective bright spots emerged: IHFLIN bonds recovered on a Moody’s upgrade to B1, Zhongsheng rose post less-than-feared FY25 results, and Chinese tech names surged on the regulator’s move to end food-delivery price wars. Pakistan bonds weakened intra-week; over the weekend, the IMF announced a staff-level agreement for a US$1.2bn loan package, subject to Executive Board approval.

Market Visualizer

*Weekly Snapshot: Key Drivers & Regional Flows*

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit

• CEEMEA – GCC IG: Largely retraced to pre-conflict levels, underpinned by local buyer support, as early-week optimism around US-Iran de-escalation sparked material tightening in Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan before sentiment reversed on fading ceasefire credibility.
• Turkey / South Africa: Both cheapened into week-end against a backdrop of rate volatility and FX concerns, standing out as underperformers within CEEMEA.
• Angola: The US$2.5bn Eurobond dominated SSA flow, initially trading firm on new-issue demand before drifting below re-offer as broader HY risk sentiment softened late in the week.
• Egypt: Tapped its 2033s amid active sovereign issuance, with the name benefiting from the mid-week rally before retracing. SSA economies broadly grappled with oil-shock spillovers from the unresolved Middle East conflict.
• Latin America – Mexico / Colombia: Spreads generally widened, with both names underperforming on ETF selling pressure and oil-linked fiscal concerns. Selective secondary activity was observed in Chile and Peru, which cheapened back toward recent wides.
• EM Hard Currency Funds: ETF and real-money outflows persisted across the week. CDX.EM closed modestly higher week-on-week despite two weak late-week sessions, reflecting the broadly mixed tone.

🇨🇳 Asia Credit: China Property & HY

• Vanke: Bonds fell approximately 4pts to the high 30s as the developer formally reached out to onshore bondholders requesting a payment delay on its April maturity, while simultaneously weighing options for a broader debt restructuring. The situation remains fluid with no resolution announced as of week-end.
• Weschi: Bonds dropped ~4pts following weak quarterly earnings, compounded by a Fitch outlook revision to Negative on its B rating. The agency cited uncertainty over free cash flow improvement, elevated overseas capital expenditure, execution risks in the ramp-up of offshore cash generation, and the potential application of a lower country ceiling.
• Zhongsheng: Despite an S&P downgrade to BBB- from BBB, bonds rose approximately 2pts following FY25 results that came in ahead of market expectations. Management noted liquidity remains adequate.

🌏 Asia Credit: Frontier & Sovereign

• Pakistan: Long-end bonds slipped approximately 1pt during the week. Over the weekend, the IMF announced a staff-level agreement for a US$1.2bn loan package, subject to Executive Board approval.
• IHFLIN (IHS Holding): Bonds rose approximately 0.3pts on net, with the intra-week surge of 3-4pts driven by RBI approval of the IHS equity investment (SEBI approval still pending) and a Moody’s upgrade to B1 from B2 with a Positive Outlook. Bonds gave back a portion of their gains as the broader market weakened into the close.

📊 Equity & Sector Observations

• China Tech – Meituan / JD.com: China’s market regulator moved to end the price war in the food delivery sector, providing a direct boost to both names. Meituan surged 8.5% and JD.com rose 4.7% on the week, standing out against broadly weak equity markets (HSI -1.3%, KOSPI -5.9%).
• EV / Lithium / Green Energy: The sector outperformed against the broadly weak equity backdrop. Market participants noted the ongoing Middle East conflict drew attention to oil supply dependency; EV and lithium-related equities rose on the week alongside commentary around the green energy sector.

DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.

AI Generation Notice: Portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Users should independently verify critical data points. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Summary: EM ex-Asia credit remained under pressure for the week ending 13 March 2026. The dominant market theme was the divergence between oil-importing and oil-exporting sovereigns, as elevated crude prices — sustained by the ongoing Iran conflict — produced sharply asymmetric outcomes across the complex. Oil exporters outperformed broadly, while importers faced additional balance-of-payments stress. Idiosyncratic drivers — including a presidential primary in Colombia, an IMF programme request from Gabon, and a corporate restructuring filing — generated significant single-name activity alongside the macro backdrop.

🌐 Macro Theme: Oil Importers vs. Exporters

• Bifurcation: Elevated oil prices — driven by sustained geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict — produced a clear divide in EM credit performance. Oil-exporting sovereigns outperformed on the week; oil-importing sovereigns remained under pressure.
• Oil Importers Under Pressure: Egypt, Lebanon, and Turkey — all net energy importers — traded with a heavy tone. Real money selling was the dominant flow dynamic across the group, consistent with terms-of-trade deterioration concerns.
• Oil Exporters Outperformed: Venezuela/PDVSA and small EM oil-producing sovereigns rallied on the week, supported by real money demand and a broadly constructive energy backdrop. Gabon, a smaller oil producer, was additionally supported by an IMF programme catalyst (see below).
• Sector Read-Across: The oil price environment also weighed on HY airline credits — which face direct fuel-cost pressure — and contributed to a cautious tone in Dubai real estate bonds, both of which declined on the week.

🗺️ MENA

• Egypt — Underperformed: Egypt was among the weaker performers on the week. Flows were characterised by real money selling earlier in the week, with hedge fund and local demand on the other side. A mid-week technical bounce driven by hedge fund buying in the long end proved short-lived, and the curve leaked lower into the close. The long end underperformed the front end on the week. In CDS, hedge fund activity was broadly net positive on the 5-year tenor.
• Lebanon — Political Headline, Curve Lower: On Monday, Parliament voted through a two-year delay to elections — a development largely expected by the market. Initial flows skewed toward hedge fund selling before real money and hedge fund buyers emerged at lower levels. The curve closed the week lower overall.
• Dubai Real Estate — Heavy: Dubai RE bonds traded with a heavy tone on the week, declining alongside the broader cautious sentiment across the region.

🌍 Sub-Saharan Africa

• Gabon — Best Performer in SSA HY: Gabon was the standout name in the region, rallying on reports that the country formally requested an IMF programme. Healthy real money two-way flow underpinned Wednesday’s move, though profit-taking emerged later in the week. Gabon closed as the top performer in Sub-Saharan African high yield on the week.

🏛️ CEEMEA

• Turkey — Weaker; Basis Richened: The Turkish complex traded with a heavier tone, with real money and ETF selling the dominant flow, partially offset by sustained local demand. Notably, the CDS/cash basis richened on the week — 5-year CDS widened more than the equivalent move in cash bonds — a divergence that warrants monitoring.

🌎 Latin America

• Venezuela / PDVSA — Outperformed LATAM HY: Venezuela and PDVSA outperformed within the LATAM HY sovereign universe. Real money was a net buyer across the curve, while hedge funds and locals reduced exposure. Real money swap activity was also observed across the curve.
• Colombia — Rallied on Primary Election: Colombia was a positive outlier following Sunday’s presidential primary elections. The market responded constructively to the result, with the belly of the curve outperforming. Early-week flows were dominated by real money and hedge fund demand, met by local selling, before some profit-taking emerged toward the close. 5-year CDS tightened on the week.
• Chile — Mixed Flows, Broadly Flat: Activity picked up on Thursday with mixed flow dynamics — hedge fund basis selling, real money two-way, local demand, and ETF selling all observed. The net result was a broadly flat week for Chile cash. No major directional catalyst was present.
• Argentina — Quiet Week: Warrants closed broadly unchanged. The broader cash curve was modestly lower. No significant catalysts drove directional flow; the name traded in a holding pattern.
• Raizbz — Out-of-Court Restructuring Filed: Raizbz generated significant single-name activity after the company filed for an out-of-court restructuring arrangement. Post-headline demand from real money and hedge funds pushed bonds higher initially; however, real money selling re-emerged across the belly and long end toward week-end. The 27s underperformed the rest of the curve. The curve closed materially higher overall, though the near-term outcome of the restructuring process remains the key variable.

✈️ Sector Themes

• HY Airlines — Continued Weakness: Pressure on high-yield airline credits continued through the week. Bonds declined, consistent with the elevated fuel cost environment.
• Small EM Oil Producers — Rallied: Smaller oil-producing sovereigns rallied on the week, reflecting the direct pass-through of higher crude prices to sovereign credit metrics. This cohort was among the clearest beneficiaries of the oil price environment.

📡 This commentary is compiled from internal trading desk notes and is intended for informational purposes only.
It does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Information may be incomplete. Use with caution.

Gembridge Capital · Singapore · Week Ending 13 March 2026

Executive Summary: The week of March 6 was defined by a violent oil price shock: WTI crude surged sharply to close near $90/bbl on Friday — one of the largest weekly gains in years — while Brent moved into the $80–90/bbl range as traders priced in real supply disruption risk from the Strait of Hormuz. The catalyst was the US–Iran war, which entered its seventh day on Friday March 6, with traffic through the Strait severely curtailed and heightening concerns over global supply. This supply shock reshapes the macro backdrop for EM credit: oil-importing sovereigns face acute fiscal and current account stress, while the inflation transmission through supply chains — not demand — is the primary channel to monitor. Separately, China’s NPC opened on March 5 with a GDP growth target of 4.5–5% for 2026, the lowest band in decades and below the long-standing “around 5%” reference, generating muted initial market disappointment.

Macro Overview

🛢️ Oil Shock: Strait of Hormuz Premium

WTI’s powerful weekly move — closing near $90/bbl on Friday — marked its strongest rise in years, with prices briefly trading well above that level in early Asian hours as overnight liquidity magnified the war premium. Brent moved into the mid-$80s as of March 5 and has been trading in an $80–90/bbl range, consistent with major bank estimates that current pricing embeds a sizeable but not yet extreme Strait of Hormuz disruption premium. The surge reflects the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million bpd of oil and refined products — about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade — normally flows. JPMorgan and other banks estimate that a multi-week restriction through Hormuz could push Brent sustainably above $100/bbl, depending on the duration and severity of the disruption.

🌐 Macro Themes: Inflation Transmission & Geopolitics

• Inflation Channel: The primary inflation risk from this oil shock runs through supply chain disruption, not headline energy demand. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) — our preferred leading indicator — remains the key metric to watch, particularly given that current shipping disruptions are geographically concentrated around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridor.
• US–Iran War & Geopolitical Bifurcation: The conflict entered Day 7 on March 6. US Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s statement that the US has “only just begun to fight” signals a prolonged engagement. China and Russia have condemned the operation; the deepening US–China bifurcation is accelerating pressure on previously non-aligned EM sovereigns to choose sides, with direct credit implications for the frontier universe.
• Electoral Calendar: Peru, Brazil, Colombia, and Hungary all head to the polls in 2026. The Venezuela regime transition (Maduro removed January 3; Delcy Rodriguez serving as interim president) also introduces significant EM political risk in Latin America. The US midterms in November add further late-year uncertainty.

Regional Credit Developments

🌍 EM Ex-Asia Credit

• Bahrain: Middle East risk premium intensified materially this week given its geographic proximity to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Oil-linked Gulf sovereigns face a short-term revenue windfall but also heightened threat exposure. Spread movements are being monitored; positioning unchanged.
• Hungary: Spread widening continues ahead of the 2026 elections, compounded by EUR weakness and geopolitical overhang from the broader Eastern European bloc. The forint has been under pressure as risk aversion builds globally.
• Kenya: Continued fiscal consolidation concerns and IMF programme negotiations are weighing on spreads. The sharp rise in oil prices adds to Kenya’s import bill, with the country importing approximately 100% of its petroleum requirements. Monitoring for re-entry levels.
• Colombia: Heading to elections in 2026, Colombia’s USD-linked oil export revenues will be temporarily boosted by higher Brent prices — a short-term credit positive — though political uncertainty around the administration’s energy and fiscal policy remains the key risk. The Colombian peso and Latin American FX more broadly could experience divergence depending on net oil trade position.
• Venezuela: Following the January 3 US military operation that removed President Maduro, sovereign bonds — in default since 2017 — remain in active price discovery. Bonds have been trading in the low-to-mid 30s (cents on the dollar), with restructuring recovery value estimates from major asset managers clustering in the 40–50 cent range under an optimistic scenario, contingent on oil production recovery requiring multi-year, multi-billion dollar capital investment.
• Argentina & Ecuador: Both remain special situations. Argentina regained market access in 2026, with spreads seen converging toward average B-rated sovereign levels. Ecuador bonds delivered strong gains in 2025 following President Noboa’s election win and an IMF facility augmentation from $4bn to $5bn.

🇨🇳 Asia Credit: China — NPC & Market Reaction

• NPC GDP Target (4.5–5%): China set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5% on March 5 — the lowest on record since the early 1990s and the first time since 2019 that a range rather than a single-point target has been used. The prior three years all targeted “around 5%”. Consumer goods subsidies were trimmed to CNY 250bn (from CNY 300bn in 2025), while the official budget deficit was set at 4% of GDP, with CNY 1.3tn in ultra-long-term special bonds and CNY 4.4tn in local government special-purpose bonds planned. Stimulus was broadly perceived as below expectations.
• Hang Seng Index: The HSI closed up on March 5 as some relief buying emerged after the GDP target was broadly in line with consensus. However, initial NPC reaction was mixed given the absence of large-scale new stimulus, and institutional positioning remains cautious in the context of elevated global risk-off sentiment driven by the Hormuz situation.
• Alibaba / China HY: BABA and large-cap tech names saw modest CB volatility this week, with geopolitical risk-off sentiment and the modest NPC stimulus headline combining to cap any upside. The team is tracking equity-credit dislocations for relative value entry. China HY property names remain distressed with no new significant issuer developments this week.

🌏 Asia Credit: Frontier & Sovereign

• Pakistan: Among the more notable movers in the frontier sovereign complex this week. The ongoing conflict with Afghanistan is adding country-specific political risk on top of the broader EM risk-off tone. Pakistan bonds delivered strong gains in 2025 following the IMF staff-level agreement and subsequent rating upgrades, meaning current spread widening is partly mean-reversion from elevated valuations.
• Sri Lanka: Continued spread volatility as the post-restructuring recovery path is tested by the global risk environment. Sri Lanka successfully restructured its hard currency debt in 2025; current moves are secondary-market repricing rather than fundamental credit deterioration.
• Airlines Sector: The aviation sector faces a meaningful headwind from the surge in jet fuel and crude benchmarks. Airlines had previously been viewed as potential beneficiaries of lower fuel costs, but with WTI having moved into the $80–90/bbl zone — and intraweek prints even higher — forward fuel assumptions must be reset before deploying new long risk in the sector.

Watch

• Oil Shock: The IEA has proposed emergency reserve releases to temper the supply shock. Any Strait of Hormuz ceasefire or coordinated G7 reserve deployment could trigger a sharp oil price reversal with immediate knock-on effects across EM credit spreads — both oil-exporters (spread compression) and oil-importers (relief). The duration and severity of the Hormuz disruption remains the single most important variable for EM markets in the near term.
• Ratings Monitor: Several issuers are on negative and positive watchlists pending agency action from Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P. Oil-importing frontier sovereigns (Kenya, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) face the most acute near-term review risk given the deteriorating current account implications of sustained $80–90/bbl oil. The credit library will be updated as rating actions are published.